Monday, March 17, 2008

I'll assume that you have some knowledge about Forex either from a book or website. I'm not going to give definitions of a pip or explain what a base currency is. There are plenty of places you can find this information. What I want to provide are practical lessons for the beginner, lessons that can help straighten the learning curve.

There's a lot of information out there on forex, some of it good and some of it misleadingly bad. Be careful. Trading forex is many times portrayed as a way to get rich fast; a home-based business. This is the furthest than from the truth. Trading forex is risky and though it may be possible to turn it into a home-based business, you need a lot of capital and experience. To give you an idea, a very experienced and respected currency trader had the following yearly returns: 71% in 2004, 433% in 2005, 53% in 2006, and 30% in 2007. Let's just say for a minute that you were as successful as this trader and started 2007 trading forex as a home-based business with $5000. Could you live on the $1500 you made in 2007? I doubt it. I'm not trying to discourage you from trying but I think it's important to be realistic. If you dive into currency trading with unrealistic expectations, you're not going to get far.

Maybe you've read a book on forex, read something about trading forex on the internet or you went to a trading seminar. This is something that interests you, something you want to commit time to, initially as a hobby and maybe one day for a living. After you have this basic knowledge, where do you begin?
I'd recommend buying a book on forex because it contains a little of everything. It explains what the forex market is and answers other basic questions. In addition it should contain information on reading charts and technical analysis. Read the book from cover to cover. When you're done, move on to step 2.
Download and install Metatrader which is a free trading and charting platform. You will prompted to open a demo account after installation. You can download Metatrader from any number of places. One such place is http://www.interbankfx.com. Start playing around with Metatrader to learn what capabilities it has. You're not going to find a Metatrader book in your bookstore but you will find online manuals on the internet. There is also a huge user community around Metatrader. You can find any one of these communities by googling "metatrader forums."
Start applying some of the things you learned from the technical analysis sections of the book to your charts. Draw some trendlines or add some indicators. Start placing some trades also. Don't be concerned about how much you're risking or whether you're going to win or lose. Just get a familiarity with how to place a trade. There's only two directions you can trade in, long (buy) or short (sell) but there are many currency pairs. Try concentrating just for consistency on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, or the USD/JPY (the four most popular currency pairs.)

These three steps should keep you busy for quite some time. Take some time to get familiar with it all then you can move on.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Forex Strategy: Trading with Stochastics

Stochastics are amongst the most popular technical indicators when it comes to Forex Trading. Unfortunately most traders use them incorrectly. In this article we will review the correct way to use this popular technical indicator.

George Lane developed this indicator in the late 1950s. Stochastics measure the current close relative to the range (high/low) over a set of periods.

Stochastics consist of two lines:

%K – Is the main line and is usually displayed as a solid line

%D – Is simply a moving average of the %K and is usually displayed as a dotted line

There are three types of Stochastics: Full, fast and slow stochastics. Slow stochastics are simply a smother version of the fast stochastics, and full stochastics are even a smother version of the slow stochastics.

Interpretation:

Buy when %K falls below the oversold level (below 20) and rises back above the same level.

Sell when %K rises above de overbought level (above 80) and falls back below the same level.

The interpretation above is how most traders and investors use them; however, it only works when the market is trendless or ranging. When the market is trending, a reading above the overbought territory isn't necessary a bearish signal, while a reading below de oversold territory isn't necessary bullish signal.

Trending market

When the market is trending is necessary to adapt the oscillator to the same conditions: When the market is trending up, then the signals with the higher probability of success are those in direction of the trend “Buy signals”, on the other hand when the market is trending down, selling signals offer the lowest risk opportunities.

Thus when the market is trending up, we will only look for oversold conditions (when the stochastics fall below the oversold level [below 20] and rises back above the same level) to get ready to trade, and in the same way, when the market is trending down we will only look for overbought conditions (when the stochastics rise above de overbought level [above 80] and falls back below the same level.
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Taking all overbought/oversold signals during a trending market will lead us to many whipsaws. If you are not comfortable with the number of signals given, try expanding your trading to other currency pairs.

Trend-less market

During a ranging market we could use the interpretation explained above to trade off stochastics.

Divergence

Divergence trades are amongst the most reliable trading signals in the Forex market. A divergence occurs either when the indicator reaches new highs/lows and the market fails to do it or the market reaches new highs/lows and the indicator fails to do it. Both conditions mean that the market isn't as strong as it used to be giving us opportunities to profit from the market.

Stochastics can also be used to trade off divergences.

Price behavior

A price behavior can be incorporated into any kind of system or Forex strategy. When using divergences or overbought/oversold condition with a price behavior approach, the probability of success of our signals increases enormously. Why? Because price dictates at the end, how all indicators will behave, it also gives us a lot of information about the probable direction it will take in the future.

I hope this article helps you become a better trader.

Don't forget to read our risk disclaimer.

Forex Broker: Choosing the right Forex Broker

Sometimes it's hard to make a decision on which Forex broker to open our trading account, there are just too many of them. Most of them have different features, capabilities, weaknesses and advantages, for this reason I have created a checklist that can help you decide the broker to use in your Forex adventure.

1. Is it regulated?

The first question you have to ask yourself is: is the broker I want to use Regulated ? There must be no doubt about this first point. All regulated brokers must submit financial reports to regulatory authorities, and when they fail to do it, authorities have the right to fine them or terminate their membership. This enforces Forex brokers to keep transparent financial reports.

The brokers must be regulated by their local regulatory authorities, for instance, for brokers based in the US , they must be regulated by the NFA (National Futures Association) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), Swiss based brokers must be regulated by the FDF (Swiss Federal Department of Finance) and so on.

Also when a Forex broker is regulated allows investors to dispute any resolution, increasing the investor protection.

2. Trading Conditions

This point refers to the features of the trading platform and the trading conditions with the chosen broker. Amongst the most important factors are:

Spread - Obviously the smaller the spread on currency pairs the better the conditions are for investors and traders.

Platform execution - Trading execution refers to how fast and consistent are the execution of trades. Some brokers guarantee fast and transparent executions during normal market conditions.

Fractional trading – Some brokers allow investors and traders to trade on a fractional basis, instead of trading full lots “100,000 units” or “300,000 units”, they allow you to trade “163,345 units” or “325,911 units”. This is very helpful for trades risking certain percentage of their balance on each trade.

Safety of funds – We need to make sure our trading funds are kept in a segregated account or at least insured.
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Trading platform – Easy to use and understand platform, is it reliable during fast moving markets? And what extra features it offers such as: one click buying/selling, trading directly from a chart, supports mobile devices, trailing stops, etc.)

Minimum investment – What is the minimum amount of money required to open a trading account? This aspect is very useful because before trading your full account, you need to test the waters and see how well you perform with an account with limited funds (after trading a demo account).

Margin (leverage) – What kind of leverage can be used with the chosen broker? Just to make sure our leverage requirements by our Forex strategy and methodology (leverage above 100:1 is not advisable).

Commissions – Some brokers charge commission, it is ok if they do if the spread is smaller than other brokers.

3. Diligence

Hopefully you have eliminated most brokers at this point. You should have 3 or 4 finalists. In this step do your diligences on forums, ask other traders about their experiences using their brokers, and so forth.

Some forums where you can ask for broker information are: ForexFactory, MoneyTec, ForexNews.

If brokers are registered by their local regulatory authorities, you can visit the regulator website and you will find plenty of information about Forex brokers. Some of them publish resolutions regarding Forex brokers.

Amongst the aspects you should ask and get informed are:

Customer service – This aspect is the most important of them all, are they rude to customers? Are they willingly to help customers? These are the questions you should ask in forums and fellow traders.

Slippage – Slippage is the difference between the price where the trade was executed and actual value of it. Do they honor stop loss and take profit levels? Do they guarantee it? If any one had any discrepancies, did their broker revert the result?

Manual execution – Some brokers don't like scalpers, if they catch someone doing it, they will put this trader into manual execution, so a dealer (human) must accept all transactions made by this trader. Do they do this?

Re-quotes – a re-quote happens when you click the buy/sell button and the platform doesn't accept our price, so it will give us another quote for that particular trade.

4. Testing

In this phase we should test our Forex broker, first on a demo account to see how it works, also test your system to see how it performs. If you are satisfied with the results, then try the same platform with limited funds to see how it performs on real trades. If you are satisfied again then open your full trading account with the chosen broker.

I hope this checklist help you all traders to take the right decision when choosing brokers.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Advantages of Forex

A Global 24-hour Market
The Forex market is unique in that traders can access a 24-hour market very conveniently, without having to wait for the markets to open. At any time, there is always a major financial center open where banks, hedge funds, corporations, and individual speculators are trading currencies. Traders can trade during anytime of the day or night, and do not have to wait for any markets to be opened before placing their trades. This is particularly beneficial to people who hold nine-to-five jobs since they can trade it without any problems in the evening or night. In stock or futures markets, you can only actively trade for less than 7 hours a day.
The market runs 24 hours for 5.5 days a week because markets around the world open and close at different times.
With the stock and futures markets, one would need to have access to electronic communication networks (ECN) for pre-market trading, or would have to wait till the markets open. The chances of the prices gapping up or down against you are high, especially if there have been news while the markets are closed.

The Most Liquid Market On The Planet
According to the Central Bank Survey of the forex market conducted by the Bank for International Settlements, as at 2004, daily trading volume reached an all-time record high of $1.9 trillion, up 58% from 2001. Do you know that this humongous daily trading volume is about 20 times that of the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq combined?
With about 80 percent of foreign exchange transactions having a dollar leg, you don't have to worry about liquidity issues when trading any of the these big-economy currencies, which are namely, USD, GBP, Euro, CHF, JPY, CAD, AUD and NZD. However with stocks, futures, options or commodities, you tend to be restricted by their illiquidity especially during after-hours.

Limited Slippage
Most brokers guarantee fills on stop-loss and limit orders on up to a certain number of standard lots, and provide instantaneous trade executions from real-time quotes which are displayed on the screen. There is usually no discrepancy between the displayed price and the execution price during normal market conditions. However, you may be subjected to slippage when you trade during news or during periods of high volatility.
In the futures and stock markets, execution price can be vague because all orders must be done through the exchange, and slippage and partial fills are common especially in the futures market due to the chaotic open-outcry system.

Buy Or Short-sell Anytime
When trading stocks, short-selling is only allowed with an uptick, so it can be very frustrating for traders to wait and see their stocks trend downward, while waiting for an uptick. In the futures market, there is a limit down/limit up rule which kicks in when the contract value declines or increases by more than a certain percentage from the previous day's close. However, in the forex market, you can short a currency pair anytime without having to wait for any upticks, and this translates to a more efficient and instant order execution.

Profit In All Market Conditions - bull, bear or sideways
With forex, you can have the freedom to long or short currency pairs whenever the opportunity comes, since there are no exchange-enforced restrictions on daily activities, like for stocks or futures.

Flexible Leverage
The forex market offers the highest leverage available for any market. Leveraged trading allows forex traders to execute trades up to $500,000 with an initial margin of only $5000. That means you get as high as 100-to-1 leverage or more, offered by most online forex firms on standard-sized accounts. However, it is important to note that while this type of leverage allows investors to maximize their profit potential, the potential for loss is equally large. The good thing is, it is up to you to select the amount of leverage that you are most comfortable with.

Exchange rates

Because currencies are traded in pairs and exchanged one against the other when traded, the rate at which they are exchanged is called the exchange rate. The majority of the currencies are traded against the US dollar (USD). The four next-most traded currencies are the Euro (EUR), the Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound sterling (GBP) and the Swiss franc (CHF). These five currencies make up the majority of the market and are called the major currencies or "the Majors". Some sources also include the Australian dollar (AUD) within the group of major currencies.
The first currency in the exchange pair is referred to as the base currency and the second currency as the counter term or quote currency. The counter term or quote currency is thus the numerator in the ratio, and the base currency is the denominator. The value of the base currency (denominator) is always 1. Therefore, the exchange rate tells a buyer how much of the counter term or quote currency must be paid to obtain one unit of the base currency. The exchange rate also tells a seller how much is received in the counter term or quote currency when selling one unit of the base currency. For example, an exchange rate for EUR/USD of 1.2083 specifies to the buyer of euros that 1.2083 USD must be paid to obtain 1 euro.
At any given point, time and place, if an investor buys any currency and immediately sells it - and no change in the exchange rate has occurred - the investor will lose money. The reason for this is that the bid price, which represents how much will be received in the counter or quote currency when selling one unit of the base currency, is always lower than the ask price, which represents how much must be paid in the counter or quote currency when buying one unit of the base currency. For instance, the EUR/USD bid/ask currency rates at your bank may be 1.2015/1.3015, representing a spread of 1000 pips (also called points, one pip = 0.0001), which is very high in comparison to the bid/ask currency rates that online Forex investors commonly encounter, such as 1.2015/1.2020, with a spread of 5 pips. In general, smaller spreads are better for Forex investors since even they require a smaller movement in exchange rates in order to profit from a trade.

Margin

Banks and/or online trading providers need collateral to ensure that the investor can pay in case of a loss. The collateral is called the margin and is also known as minimum security in Forex markets. In practice, it is a deposit to the trader's account that is intended to cover any currency trading losses in the future.
Margin enables private investors to trade in markets that have high minimum units of trading by allowing traders to hold a much larger position than their account value. Margin trading also enhances the rate of profit, but can also enhance the rate of loss if the investor makes the wrong decision.

Leveraged financing

Leveraged financing, i.e., the use of credit, such as a trade purchased on a margin, is very common in Forex. The loan/leveraged in the margined account is collateralized by your initial deposit. This may result in being able to control USD 100,000 for as little as USD 1,000.
There are three ways private investors can trade in Forex directly or indirectly:
1.The spot market
2.Forwards and futures
3.Options


A spot transaction

A spot transaction is a straightforward exchange of one currency for another. The spot rate is the current market price, also called the benchmark price. Spot transactions do not require immediate settlement, or payment "on the spot." The settlement date, or "value date," is the second business day after the "deal date" (or "trade date") on which the transaction is agreed to by the two traders. The two-day period provides time to confirm the agreement and arrange the clearing and necessary debiting and crediting of bank accounts in various international locations.


Forwards and Futures

Forwards make up about 46% of currency trading. A forward transaction is an agreement between two parties whereby one party buys a currency at a particular price by a certain date that is greater than two business days (a spot transaction).
A future contract is a forward contract with fixed currency amounts and maturity dates. They are traded on future exchanges and not through the interbank foreign exchange market.
OptionsA currency option is similar to a futures contract in that it involves a fixed currency transaction at some future date in time. However the buyer of the option is only purchasing the right but not the obligation to purchase a fixed amount of currency at a fixed price by a certain date in future. The price is known as the premium and is lost if the buyer does not exercise the option.


Risks

Although Forex trading can lead to very profitable results, there are risks involved: exchange rate risks, interest rate risks, credit risks, and country risks. Approximately 80% of all currency transactions last a period of seven days or less, while more than 40% last fewer than two days. Given the extremely short lifespan of the typical trade, technical indicators heavily influence entry, exit and order placement decisions.